EURUSD

In the last week of July, the focus of global markets will be on seeking clues about the timing of the first interest rate cut, despite no changes expected in the policy rate, through the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Powell's speech. The Fed's inflation indicator, PCE, along with Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate data, will shed light on whether the bank will maintain its cautious stance. As markets begin the new week with these considerations, news has emerged that trade agreement negotiations between the U.S. and the EU at a 15% tariff rate will continue. This indicates that discussions with key countries on the EU side, where no agreement has yet been reached, carry critical importance from a risk perspective.

The Classic Dollar Index is showing a volatile trend in an environment where buyers and sellers are competing. After the inflation data, the strengthening DXY may come under pressure again during a period of increased scrutiny on the Fed. While long-term buyers continue to show interest in pricing above the 200-month average (95.40), short-term sellers are not demanding excessive pricing above the 34-day average (97.90). Strategically, pricing behavior outside the 96.75 – 98.45 range can be closely monitored. Below the 96.75 level, long-term buyers may face pressure towards the 200-month average, while maintaining above the 98.45 level could lead to confirmation of new upward trends.