A new era in Turkey-EU relations: Common gains and future scenarios

European Neighborhood Council (ENC) Director Samuel Doveri Vesterbye emphasizes that Turkey and the EU need each other more than ever today, while stating that Turkey's full membership is unlikely. Emeritus Prof. Dr. İlter Turan reminds that Turkey must comply with the Copenhagen criteria, which are designed for adopting the EU's political, economic, and community legislation.

Preparations are being made for a new phase in Turkey-EU relations. Europe is trying to develop security and defense policies against what it sees as a threat: Russia. Turkey, as a significant military power within NATO, believes that Brussels needs it in these defense efforts. This belief was reinforced by Donald Tusk's statement during his visit to Ankara on March 12, expressing hope that "Turkey's EU membership process becomes a realistic and tangible process." With statements from European leaders, the improvement in Turkey-EU relations seems to be taking a more concrete form. In this new phase, Ankara emphasizes that EU membership is a strategic priority. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated during Tusk's visit that EU membership is one of the strategic goals, saying, "If the European Union wants to prevent or even reverse the loss of power and altitude, it can only achieve this through Turkey's full membership."

Samuel Doveri Vesterbye, Director of the Brussels-based think tank European Neighborhood Council (ENC), which studies the EU's enlargement and foreign policies, stated in an interview with Euronews Turkish that Turkey and the EU need each other more than ever today. How realistic is Turkey's EU membership? One of the cornerstones of relations with the EU is Turkey's long-standing and unfinished EU membership process. However, no progress has been made in this process for many years. Turkey's candidacy was officially approved at the Helsinki Summit held on December 10-11, 1999, and it was clearly stated that it would be in an equal position with other candidate countries.

Vesterbye discusses the negative impact of the rise of the far-right in Europe on Turkey's EU membership process, stating, "To be realistic, it seems unlikely that Turkey will gain full membership in the near future. There is generally a stagnation in the EU's enlargement process. Additionally, the rising far-right movements in Europe are slowing this process." Speaking to Euronews Turkish, foreign policy expert and political scientist Emeritus Prof. Dr. İlter Turan states that Turkey must first comply with the Copenhagen criteria regarding the rule of law as a main item in order to achieve EU membership. Turan emphasizes that unless the rule of law is fully operational and democratic standards are raised, it would not be realistic to expect significant progress in Turkey's membership process. However, Turkey’s importance for European defense is increasing, which necessitates a new framework for relations.

Turan mentions that Turkey may benefit from some EU facilitation, stating, "We can confirm Turkey's importance for European defense. We might consider that Turkey's contribution to defense, including EU members, would be significant, but it is a bit early to say that these will closely affect Turkey's membership relations with the EU."

What role can Turkey play in the EU security architecture? The geopolitical risks arising from the Russia-Ukraine war require both Turkey and the EU to develop a common security perspective. The European Union has introduced a rearmament plan called "ReArm Europe" aimed at supporting Ukraine in the short term and strengthening its own defense in the long term, in line with the goal of strategic autonomy. This five-point plan, which EU leaders are working on, aims to mobilize about 800 billion euros in budget over the next four years, with a significant portion of this funding coming from increased defense spending by member countries. European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen stated that defense spending could create a financial space of around 650 billion euros by increasing GDP by an average of 1.5%.

Emphasizing Turkey's importance in the European security architecture, ENC Director Vesterbye said, "Ukraine is a critical ally for Europe, and if it falls under Russia's control, it poses a significant security threat to the entire European continent. Turkey also plays a key role in this equation due to its strategic position in the Black Sea." He also highlighted Turkey's economic ties with the EU, stating, "There could be reciprocal gains for both sides." Vesterbye continued, "Turkey can gain significant benefits from military technology transfers from the EU. Similarly, EU countries can invest in the defense industry at lower costs by utilizing production facilities in Turkey. This creates a win-win scenario for both sides."

According to data from Global Firepower, a US-based military statistics site, Turkey ranks third among NATO countries in terms of overall military strength. This ranking is based on various factors such as the number of military personnel, inventory of air and ground vehicles, naval capacity, and defense budget. Emeritus Prof. Dr. İlter Turan indicates that Turkey is becoming an increasingly critical actor in European defense policies. Due to its role within NATO and its geographical position, Turkey stands out as an important ally in the European security architecture. However, Turan notes that it is still unlikely that Turkey will become one of the main pillars of European defense policies. "With the decreasing interest of the US in European defense, there is no single country to take on this burden. There are also serious disagreements among the countries within the EU regarding the establishment of a common security doctrine," Turan points out, reminding that there is currently no established and functional security alliance in Europe. "For Turkey to provide the defense services expected of it in such a security community, it needs substantial financial support. However, we do not know what kind of financial sacrifices European countries that demand defense and perhaps want Turkey to be involved in this defense are willing or not willing to make to keep Turkey in this position," he added.

Turan emphasizes that the European Union, which is planning a defense and rearmament budget worth 800 billion euros, has been quite negligent in the defense field so far, commenting, "First of all, this budget will be used to address the EU's own deficiencies." Turan states that Turkey could only receive modest support from such a budget: "This is possible, but Turkey's needs are quite significant. Therefore, Turkey will expect the countries that take on European defense to address these needs. It is not possible to say in advance to what extent this will happen, and there is no reason to be overly optimistic."

Turkey's possible primary demands: Customs Union and visa liberalization. The issues of the Customs Union and visa liberalization have long been debated topics in Turkey-EU relations. Turkey wants to update the Customs Union to strengthen its economic relations with the EU. Turkey has been part of the Customs Union since 1996 as a phase of the integration process initiated by the 1963 Ankara Agreement. The Turkey-EU Customs Union only covers industrial products and processed agricultural products, while traditional agricultural products are excluded, and only the industrial share is subject to tax exemptions.

According to Prof. Dr. İlter Turan, Turkey's mere obligation to comply with decisions within the Customs Union is causing some problems. "Turkey's lack of participation in the Customs Union decision-making mechanisms is a significant issue. The EU does not consider Turkey's views when making trade agreements with third countries, yet Turkey is forced to comply with these agreements. This creates an unfair environment in economic relations." Similarly, the issue of visa liberalization is a matter that Turkey has been seeking a solution for a long time. Turan states, "The EU provides visa facilitation to Eastern European and even some Caucasian countries. Ankara will insist that this facilitation be granted to Turkey as well." "You know, due to these visa difficulties, Turkey struggles to participate in fairs on time in economic competition or to meet deadlines for other tenders. These obstacles need to be lifted." Citizens of countries like Georgia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Albania can travel to Europe visa-free for up to 90 days.

ENC Director Vesterbye states that Turkey has many strategic cards on the negotiation table. "This is a negotiation, and the EU's full membership request is a clever negotiation tactic because perhaps something else can come to the table then. For example, special institutional structural relationships that could include the Customs Union or a security partnership, rearmament, industrialization, Customs Union reform, or even perhaps the Euro as a currency in the future. So, I actually think there are very positive negotiations on the table."

How will the PKK's disarmament affect Turkey-EU relations? Vesterbye notes that PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan's call for disarmament is of great importance for both Turkey's internal politics and therefore for its relations with the EU. "The peace process, or whatever you call it, is extremely important. The EU supports this. Stability and peace are very important. The PKK is considered a terrorist organization by the EU, and of course, all of this depends on Kurds having equal rights, cultural rights, and similar rights, which is very important. However, I think this is also part of the negotiation," he stated.

Prof. Dr. İlter Turan emphasizes that there is "still no resolution process" and that this is an internal issue for Turkey. "We are still far from a solution. This is Turkey's problem and related to its internal affairs. And right now, we do not know this: when such a resolution occurs, will the PKK, organized in Europe, continue to exist by changing its name? Or will they also end their anti-Turkish campaigns? We do not know this." Turan also noted that the PKK is being used by some European countries, concluding with, "If the PKK wanted to end its activities, perhaps these countries would not allow them to do so. We do not know this either, but I generally think that if Turkey can resolve its own internal terrorism issue, which has not happened yet, I emphasize this insistently, it will lead to an improvement in Turkey's position toward foreign countries."